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That didn’t take long. On October 9, I made my first prediction of 2017. Here’s how it read:

Gun

I predict that on or before September 1, 2019, there will be more mass shootings on American soil. I further predict that the American government will do nothing of significance to curb this mayhem and loss of life. I further predict that the congressmen who took no action will be rewarded for their lack of action, not only by the National Rifle Association but by their constituents, who will re-elect them.

Now, on Sunday, November 5, less than a month later, a lone gunman with an assault rifle murdered more than 25 parishioners, including young children, in a Texas church. He’d been bad-conduct discharged from the air force for assaults against his wife and child, spent a year in the brig, and he proudly posted a photo of himself brandishing an assault rifle on his Facebook page. Still, he was able to fill his vehicle with deadly weapons.

I could wait until Congress or the President or the Texas legislature acts, but I feel 100% safe concluding in advance that they won’t do a thing. Other than say they are praying. Or proclaim, as President Trump, has already done, the standard mass-shooting sound loop, It’s too early to talk about gun control. Here are his words: “It isn’t a guns situation but a mental health problem at the highest level. But this isn’t a guns situation. I mean, we could go into it, but it’s a little bit soon to go into it.”

Yes. Just as I predicted — easily, if angrily, predicted. After all, politicians did nothing after the murders of elementary school children, college students, cafeteria diners, movie goers, concert goers, party goers, other church goers. They’ll do nothing now.

Three notes:

As I watched the early reports on CBS, NBC and ABC, I heard not a single word about gun control.

What I did hear was that the first person who was blamed for the murders was a Black American seeking revenge for the earlier murders in a Black church in Tennessee. In fact, that crime and this were committed by armed Caucasians.

And finally, here’s how the Dallas News responded to the politicians’ non-response: https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/11/05/talk-gun-control-now-sutherland-springs-will-never-talk

Jules

 

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On Halloween Eve, Alexander’s Steakhouse transmogrified itself into Alexander’s Snakehouse. It ‘twas scary — very scary. In the words of the general manager, “Not for the faint of heart or weak of spirit.”

Or slim of wallet. For $175, patrons were escorted by a ghoulish presence into the lower level— now, more dungeon than dining room. Once seated, they were served “Rattlesnake rillettes with citrus sage anti venom; the Scryer’s bowl with calf brains and shirako marrow egg; Silence of the Ducks with seared foie-gras, fava beans and a nice Chianti; Steak and the Heart with aged Angus beef, beef heart ragout and potato hay; and the Poison Apple with oatmeal and I scream white chocolate covered insects.”

The dining experience was heightened by a silent rendering of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre looping on a wall-sized screen, ghostly organ music, masked waiters, toothy jack-o-lanterns, snakes in jars and ‘blood’ on walls.

But the scariest part of the evening wasn’t the scenery; it was the prices on the wine list. When a bottle of Romanee Conti Grand Cru goes for $11,280, that scream you hear may be your own.

Alexander’s Steakhouse is at 448 Brannan Street between Third and Fourth Streets in San Francisco.

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DOUBLE HEADER (First Game)

On their next trip to San Francisco, your readers can take in a big double-header. Here’s the first game:

Through February 4, 2018, the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, SFMOMA, is hosting “Walker Evans,” a humungous retrospective of the seminal 20th century photographer’s work. His most famous photo is here, “Alabama Tenant Farmer Wife,” along with candid New York street portraits, collected ephemera, photos of his home, and much, much more.

Four-hundred images, some little larger than postage stamps— it’s informative, and it is exhausting.

The second game is a cure for exhaustion, just around the corner, at the Contemporary Jewish Museum. Check it out.

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On their next trip to San Francisco, your readers can take in a big double-header. Through February 4, the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, SFMOMA, is hosting “Walker Evans,” a humungous retrospective of the seminal 20th century photographer’s work.
Four-hundred images, some little larger than postage stamps— it’s informative, and it is exhausting.

But just a block away, the Contemporary Jewish Museum, CJM, has a pick-me-up. Through January 28, 2018, its most lively and invigorating exhibit, “Jewish Folktales Retold: Artist As Maggid”, awakens tired eyes. Rough enough, ‘maggid’ means story-teller. The CJM commissioned sixteen contemporary artists to pick a Jewish folk tale and riff on it. The result? Surprise. Enchantment. Delight. Some of the artists are Michael Arcega, Julia Goodman, Dina Goldstein, Vera Iliatova, David Kasprzak, Elisabeth Higgins O’Connor, Mike Rothfeld, Tracey Snelling, Chris Sollars, M. Louise Stanley, Inez Storer, and Young Suh and Katie Peterson.
Jewish Folktales Retold: Artist as Maggid
Sep 28, 2017–Jan 28, 2018

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DAY FOUR

Roy

I predict that on November 6, 2018, the voters of Alabama will elect Roy Stewart Moore to the Senate. This is of note because Moore, a former chief justice of Alabama, was twice removed from the bench for defying judicial orders. And because he proudly espouses these beliefs:

  • President Barack Obama was not born in the United States.
  • God placed Donald Trump in the White House.
  • Muslims should not be allowed to serve in Congress.
  • The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were God’s punishment for America’s wicked culture.
  • The First Amendment only applies to Christians because “Buddha didn’t create us, Mohammed didn’t create us, it was the God of the Holy Scriptures who created us.”

And, after breaking news that Moore and his kin have gotten rich from ‘charity,’ I’m doubling down on my prediction of his election victory.

 

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Jules Predicts

 

DAY THREE

Fight

Though today, there’s not an inch of daylight between them, I predict that on or before February 14, 2019, political partners and best friends Donald Trump and Mike Pence will have a brutal, ugly and very public falling-out. It will be replete with name-calling, accusations and rancor most foul.

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Jules Predicts 

 

DAY TWO

Crash

I predict that on or before October 1, 2019, the American stock market will swan dive from the high board into an empty pool. This will not be an adjustment, a correction, a blip. I predict a massive fall from a great height, with lasting and far-reaching consequences.

Note: In response to yesterday’s Gun prediction, Florence Oxenham wrote, “I heard an NPR reporter claim that there were at least 7 mass shootings in the week following the Vegas mass shooting (“mass shooting” defined as 4 or more fatalities). So, sadly, you were right on the money there.”

Business Insider concurs: “[Las Vegas] marked the 273rd mass shooting in 2017, according to the nonprofit Gun Violence Archive, which tracks shootings in the US. To put this into perspective, we are 275 days into the year, which means the US has had nearly as many mass shootings as days in 2017.”

 

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Jules Predicts

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2010

AND here we ago again. For the third time, I’m prognosticating about the near future. Here are this year’s five predictions — five in five days — about America’s economy and politics.

  1. Homeward Bound In both previous predictions, I said that despite expert opinion to the contrary, I believed falling housing prices had yet to hit bottom. I now predict… exactly the same. For the next 12 months, prices will continue to fall. To see all predictions past, logon http://julespredicts.blogspot.com

home prices lowest since 2002: http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/24/real_estate/home-prices/?source=cnn_bin

  1. Sarah’s Future She’s the hottest ticket in American politics. Her books are selling out, her tweets are breathlessly reported, and in Republican primaries, she’s backed the winning candidate time after time after time. Yet I predict that Sarah Louise Palin will not be the Republican candidate for President in the next election. To see all predictions past, logon http://julespredicts.blogspot.com
  2. Meg’s Game Plan Margaret Cushing Whitman, the fourth richest woman in California, has spent more of her own money running for governor than any candidate has ever spent running for any office in history. Win or lose, I predict her real goal will be revealed during the next presidential elections, when she will put her name forward as the candidate for Vice President of the United States. Who will be her running mate? Stay tuned. To see all predictions past, logon http://julespredicts.blogspot.com
  3. The Republican Candidate Rudy is speechifying all over the place. Sarah is omnipresent in the media. Mike has his own show on Fox. Yet, I predict the next Republican candidate for President of the United States will be Willard Mitt Romney. Will he win? Tell you tomorrow. To see all predictions past, logon http://julespredicts.blogspot.com
  4. Hail to the Chief His approval ratings have sunk and are still sinking. He’s taking flak from the Left, being carpet bombed by the Right. He’s about to lose some of his chief advisors. Yet, I predict… should he choose to run, the winner of the next presidential election will be none other than Barack Hussein Obama. To see all predictions past, logon http://julespredicts.blogspot.com

 

If you have predictions of your own, I’d love to hear ‘em.

— jules

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Jules Predicts

2008

It’s easy to predict the past; we’re all expert at that.

And it’s not that hard to predict the distant future: events intervene, nature interrupts, people forget.

Ah, but predicting the near future — that’s where the game gets rough. And that’s why so few experts risk it.

I’m no expert. I’m gonna risk it. Starting Monday, I’m going to make five predictions, one per day. All will come true or not within the next twelve months, most of them considerably sooner.

Most of my predictions go against the experts you see on the national news. They’re experts; I’m not. They’ve got credentials; I don’t. You’ll know soon which of us is right and which got it wrong, wrong, wrong.

Stay tuned.

jules

DAY 1

John McCain’s running mate I. They’ve been traveling together, hanging together, finishing each other’s sentences. Yet I predict that John McCain’s running mate will not be the Senator from Connecticut, Joe Lieberman.

  • jules

DAY 2

The Great Texas Polygamy Bust. Every expert on every news channel is talking about how the women in the Dorado polygamist compound are brainwashed, victimized, abused and little more than psychic prisoners. Yet I predict that these ‘pathetic victims’ will demonstrate enormous resilience when standing up to… the law enforcement teams that swooped in to save them and their kids. I further predict that this will prove to be a Texas-size legal disaster. New phrase: busters’ remorse.

— jules

DAY 3

John McCain’s running mate II. Everybody’s talking about what a dream team they’d make. Male and female, black and white, old and young. Yet I predict that John McCain’s running mate will not be the Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleezza Rice.

— jules

DAY 4

The Great California Taqueria Bust. Despite the enormous cost in tax dollars of the simultaneous raids carried out by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement against 11 Bay Area El Balazo restaurants, I predict that in the end, it will all come to naught. A few women will be — again, at considerable cost — separated from their families and returned to Mexico, but they will be replaced by other taco-wielding mamas in short order. Justice will not be served; only burritos. Except in rending families and spending money, the raids will have near-zero effect.

THIS JUST IN: Sadly, my DAY 2 prediction, The Great Texas Polygamy Bust, is already coming true. To see for yourself, logon

http://melissarogers.typepad.com/melissa_rogers/2008/05/some-disturbing.html

Thanks to Tom Carter in Washington, DC for alerting me to it.

— jules

For the details of the Taqueria bust, logon

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/03/BA3610G940.DTL

DAY 5

The Crash is coming. Despite the current soaring, record-setting stock prices, I predict a major — and I mean major — stock market crash in less than 12 months. To be clear, I’m not talking slips and blips; I’m predicting a run-for-the-hills c-r-a-s-h.

— jules

—————————

Jules Older is a San Francisco writer and editor.

May 26: ONE RIGHT, FOUR TO GO

During the week of May 12, 2008, I made five predictions, one per day.

Day Two’s prediction was this:

The Great Texas Polygamy Bust. Every expert on every news channel is talking about how the women in the Dorado polygamist compound are brainwashed, victimized, abused and little more than psychic prisoners. Yet I predict that these ‘pathetic victims’ will demonstrate enormous resilience when standing up to… the law enforcement teams that swooped in to save them and their kids. I further predict that this will prove to be a Texas-size legal disaster. New phrase: busters’ remorse.

Here we are, still in May, and that one has already come true. As almost everyone by now knows, a Texas appeals court ruled that the state took the children illegally. And while the government is appealing that decision, as I predicted, the women of the compound are united… against their ‘rescuers.’

As for the 31 pregnant or mothering ‘minors,’ it turns out one of them is 27, and the overall number may actually be between one and five.

And check this out:

Despite the judge who ordered the removals asking the state to do everything possible to keep children from the same families together in foster care, many parents say their children are scattered across the state. Several are spending hundreds of dollars, driving thousands of miles each week to visit children that are up to 900 miles apart.

Also, many parents are complaining that their children have had religious texts taken from them, specifically, The Book Of Mormon.

That’s from NBC, and I thank Shannon Walton for bringing it to my attention. Here’s the link:

http://fieldnotes.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/21/1049578.aspx

Further prediction: Expect lawsuits against the State of Texas to bloom like prairie flowers.

—jules

August 28: THREE RIGHT, TWO TO GO

This morning John McCain announced his choice for Vice President, and as predicted, it was neither Condoleezza Rice nor Joe Lieberman.

These were my most misunderstood predictions… except by ethnic (read Blacks and Jews) Jokers. They got what I got — that enough of his core base would not be pleased if either ethnicity were next-in-line for President that nominating Joe or Condie would further alienate his right wing.

So, despite all the press speculation about those ‘Dream Teams,’ I figured it just wasn’t gonna happen.

But while I got that right, my unmade prediction was wrong. I would have bet that McCain’s running mate would be one Mitt Romney, accompanied by much patriotic fervor and a major infusion of cash. What I may have missed was that had Mitt become VP, President McCain might feel the need to hire a personal food taster.

— jules

All this can be found at http://julespredicts.blogspot.com

September 17: FOUR RIGHT, ONE TO GO

This from just in the BBC:

Investors edgy as US stocks fall

US stock markets sank on fears the bailout of insurance giant AIG would not be enough to dispel the gloom engulfing the financial world.

Finance firms slumped with Goldman Sachs 24% lower while Morgan Stanley saw shares 32% down in afternoon trade.

Investors were unnerved by recent dramatic events, including Lehman Brothers’ demise, leading European indexes to end down.

And this:

Trading in Russian shares halted

Trading on Russia’s main stock exchanges has been suspended following steep falls in shares prices this week.

The shock developments on Wall Street this week spurred a sell-off in Russian shares.

Following a plunge of 6%, the dollar-denominated RTS index halted trading on Wednesday until further notice. It is down almost 60% since its May peak.

Today, CNN reported:

Defense stocks slide with rattled market

September 17, 2008: 11:34 AM EST

NY (Associated Press) – Defense stocks led by Boeing Co. tumbled Wednesday afternoon as anxieties over the financial sector rippled through the U.S. market even after the government agreed to bail out insurer American International Group. Broader stock indicators also fell.

And finally:

Dow slips 450 as Wall Street turmoil deepens

 Yes — alas — my fourth prediction has proved all-too-true. You’ll recall that during the week of May 12, 2008, I made five public predictions, one per day.

Here was the fourth:

The Crash is coming. Despite the current soaring, record-setting stock prices, I predict a major — and I mean major — stock market crash in less than 12 months. To be clear, I’m not talking slips and blips; I’m predicting a run-for-the-hills c-r-a-s-h.

Great. So I was right. The question is: How come a financial ignoramus such as I got it right, and so very many highly qualified pundits, politicians and experts got it wrong, wrong, wrong?

Here’s my theory. They feel a pressure — inner and/or outer — not to upset things, not to cause panic, not to, well, tell the truth. So they selectively perceive, selectively report, keep their jobs and pray for sunshine.

Me, I’m just a guy with no clients, no followers and who’s never taken an economics course. I feel no such restraints. And thus, I allow myself to see what’s there to be seen: great swaths of foreclosed houses, massive layoffs, failing banks, government rescues. Didn’t take genius; just open eyes.

If I’d believed the experts instead of my eyes, I’d be a wee bit peeved today. In their caution and ‘responsibility,’ they’ve not told us the truth. Believing them has proved costly, often disastrously so.

This is one of those times I wish I weren’t right. But in my book, open eyes are preferable to following the crowd. Just because you’re marching in step doesn’t mean you’re heading in the right direction.

Peace.

jules

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IF YOU GO-OH TO SANTA CRUZ …

“How will you make history?”

In the heart of Santa Cruz, I’ve found a museum I’m crazy about. Let me count the ways …

  • It’s compact enough to absorb without suddenly feeling, “If I don’t sit down and stop looking at art in the next 30 seconds, I’m gonna go blind.”
  • It approaches history without preaching or airbrushing, in a way that impacts the soul as well as the brain.
  • It balances the serious/weighty with the amusing/light.
  • It serves good food at affordable prices.
  • And it comes with outdoor spaces to sit and schmooze, contemplate and consider.

The name of the place? MAH, the Santa Cruz Museum of Art and History. MAH is as inviting, family-friendly, hands-on and impactful a museum as I’ve seen anywhere. The message on the doorsill of the history exhibit asks: “How will you make history?”

I like it like that.

 

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